Economic forecasting with an agent-based model

نویسندگان

چکیده

We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro data from national accounts, sector input–output tables, government statistics, census business demography data. The incorporates all economic activities as classified by European System Accounts (ESA 2010) includes sectors populated millions heterogeneous agents. In addition to being competitive framework forecasts aggregate variables, detailed structure allows breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this structure, we demonstrate medium-run macroeconomic effects lockdown measures taken Austria combat COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications include stress-testing predicting monetary or fiscal policies.

منابع مشابه

mortality forecasting based on lee-carter model

over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...

15 صفحه اول

An Adaptive Agent Based Economic Model

In this paper we describe a simple model of adaptive agents of different types, represented by Learning Classifier Systems (LCS), which make investment decisions about a risk free bond and a risky asset under a well defined stock market environment. Our main aim is to explore the degree of reliability that artificially intelligent agents can have when applied to real life economic problems. We ...

متن کامل

Conceptual Agent based Modeling in Supply Chain: An Economic Perspective

Abstract: The implementation of government legislation, social responsibility, environmental concerns regarding the reduction of waste, hazardous material and other consumer residuals have made the competition between the firms stricter than ever and nowadays firms that want to survive need a more productive and innovative approach toward the financial aspects of their businesses.his pape...

متن کامل

An Agent-Based Bayesian Forecasting Model for Enhanced Network Security

Security has become a major issue in many organisations, but most systems still rely on operating systems, and a user ID and password system to provide user authentication and validation. They also tend to be centralized in their approach which makes them open to an attack. This paper presents a distributed approach to network security using agents, and presents a novel application of the Bayes...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: European Economic Review

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1873-572X', '0014-2921']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306